NRF 2017 opened on good news that USA 2016 retail holiday sales increased 4% over the previous year to $658.3 billion, exceeding initial National Retail Federation forecasts. Number includes $122.9 billion in non-store sales which were up 12.6%.
For the106th Annual Convention & EXPO in New York this past week, NRF forecasted 35,000 attendees. The 2017 edition will exceed the over 3000 retail companies from over 90 countries attending the previous year.
On both personal and professional levels this was one of the best NRF events ever. Always enjoy participating in the motivational and educational RetailROI event on Saturday. During NRF, the group raised over $500,000 in support of global Retail Orphan Initiatives.
The past couple of weeks were filled with the delivery of regionally customized presentations on the future of retail in Spain, UK, Portugal, and Switzerland. As we are in the middle of the paramount shopping season, special focus was on three important retail holidays.
Black Becomes Cyber While Overtaken By Singles
Black Friday
Over both Thanksgiving and Black Friday, 2016 brick-and-mortar net instore sales dropped 5% and the number of transactions fell 7.9%. Shopper visits to physical stores declined 1% during the same two day period. UK 2016 Black Friday shopper traffic fell a significant 8% which follows a drop of 4.05% in 2015.
Two weeks ago, had the pleasure of speaking to the Board of Directors at two major Brazil apparel retailers. An updated view on "The Disruptive Future of Retail" was the message. Very pleased that audience was engaged, embracing of the disruptive trends discussed, and had lots of questions on their direct impact in the Brazil retail market.
"We want people to be able to use those (Frequent Flyer) miles not to fly for free but to control your experience." - Glen Hauenstein, Delta Airlines President (March 2016)
American Airlines is credited with the development of the first loyalty program in 1981. "What distinguished the airline program, and made them the most successful marketing program ever, was a winning combination of the psychological and the financial - the lure of travel (quintessentially aspirational) and the return-on-investment value of the awards (because they awarded unsold seats, the real cost to the airline was miniscule)."
Retailers were not far behind in adapting loyalty programs to increase brand value.
Thirty five years later, it's interesting to contrast the evolution and current state of loyalty programs in both the airline and retail industries.
Have been debating for some time the top 3 retail technology inventions of all time. From history, a few of the candidates considered:
Shopping Mall - The first shopping mall was built in Milan between 1865 and 1877. The Galleria is named after the first King of Italy, Vittorio Emanuele II.
Coupons - In 1888, Coca-Cola created the first coupon that could be redeemed for their new beverage.
Loyalty Card - American Airlines is credited with the development of the first loyalty program in 1981.
CCTV - Germany used CCTV systems in the development of V-2 rockets to monitor launches during World War II.
Credit Card - John Biggins, a New York Banker, introduced the "Charge-It" card in 1946.
A favorite annual report is AT Kearney's Global Retail Development Index (GDRI). The 15th annual edition is titled 'Global Retail Expansion at a Crossroads'.
2016 GDRI Emerging Markets Insights
"Retail in developing countries has seen excellent growth. While the developing world population has grown 21% to 6.2 billion, retail sales in those markets have grown more than 350% and now represent more than half of total global retail sales."
China, India, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Indonesia are the top five countries in the 2016 GDRI index. Driven by large populations and high growth, four out of the top five countries are in Asia.
Last week, I had the pleasure to attend a two-day Executive technology briefing at Microsoft headquarters in Redmond. A highlight was the retail technology tour where the latest technologies were integrated into a mock multi-store mall. In each of the store formats, lots of digital sensor solutions were feeding a growing computing cloud.
Concurrently to my visit to Microsoft, Pokemon Go continued its meteoric rise in becoming one of the most successful mobile games of all time. As of Monday, July 11th, Pokemon Go was seeing about 21 million daily active users, making it the biggest mobile game in USA history.
Just as impressive is the amount of time that each individual is playing with the app. The average iPhone user spent 33 minutes on the Pokemon Go app, "whereas only 28 minutes on the Facebook app, 18 minutes on Snapchat app, 17 minutes in the Twitter app, and 15 minutes in the Instagram app."
The 2016 USA National Retail Security Survey (NRSS) is jointly conducted by the Dr. Richard Hollinger of the University of Florida and the National Retail Federation (NRF). This year's survey had responses from 80 retailers.
In 2015, the average overall shrink rate was 1.38% of sales which cost the USA retail economy $45.2 billion. For the grocery sector, retail shrink increased from 3.2% to 3.6%. Specialty men's and women's apparel shrink was at 1.2%. Discount, mass merchandise, or super center retailers shrink was at 1.1%.
As the internet is the primary foundation for industry disruption, every year I look forward to Mary Meeker's latest trends report.
Global Internet Growth is Slowing
The internet global population is now at 3 billion. Overall growth is flat at 9% year on year. Excluding India, global internet growth was only 7%. This contrasts to 2009 when the internet was growing at over 15% per year.
India now has 277 million people on the internet, growing at 40% in the last reported year. In 2015, India passed USA to become the number two global user market behind China.
"A business based on brand is, very simply, a business primed for success" - David F. D'Alessandro
Forbes recently published the latest list of the Top 100 World's Most Valuable Brands. By the numbers, following are key insights from the 2016 edition:
Top countries: USA (52 brands), Germany (11), Japan (8), France (6), Switzerland (4).
On the journey to learn something new, we travel to Montreux Switzerland. After the creation of a Jazz Festival by Claude Nobs in 1967, the founding of the world-class Mountain Studios inside the local casino in 1975, and favorable tax benefits, this quiet Swiss Lake Geneva (or Lac Léman) town became a destination to create music by legends such as Queen.
The earliest settlement in Montreux dates back to the late Bronze Age. The name Montreux comes from the Latin word monasteriolum, meaning "small monastery". Over hundreds of years, the local language changed this Latin word into Mustruel by 1215, and later into the modern name Montreux.
Deep Purple got the inspiration to the song “Smoke on the water” here. The rock group Queen with lead singer Freddy Mercury recorded 6 albums here. The studio was inside the casino that burned down in 1971 that inspired the Deep Purple memorable song.
For Freddy Mercury, Montreux became his second home; a place where he could escape the spotlight and focus on what he loved most: making music. Today, his legacy lives on through the iconic Freddie Mercury statue overlooking Lake Geneva in this picture.
Being a fan of classic rock, I truly enjoyed my visit to Montreux and blasted “Smoke on the Water” in my ear pods on arrival. This particular pose with Freddy was a personal reminder that life is short and never forget to let your guard down and have fun.
Psychologist Mike Rucker once wrote that "Happiness is a state of mind, but fun is something you can do. It doesn't require education, money or power. All it requires is intentionality. If happiness is a mirage, fun is your backyard oasis."
My oasis is celebrating life, always having a positive attitude, listen to all types of motivating music, and living each single moment as it was my last. At the top of my voice, I will continue to scream that we are all champions of possibilities that must keep on fighting towards our destined end. Rock on my friends.
Confidence in physical retail remains solid this year. More than 55% of survey respondents said they feel confident or very confident about brick-and-mortar performance in 2026, while only around 20% expressed concern. - From Place AI Read more
The Number 1 country continued lead reinforces a broader trend: countries with strong institutions, high trust, and robust social safety nets consistently rank highest in life satisfaction. - From Visual Capitalist
NRF 2017 opened on good news that USA 2016 retail holiday sales increased 4% over the previous year to $658.3 billion, exceeding initial National Retail Federation forecasts. Number includes $122.9 billion in non-store sales which were up 12.6%. 
A favorite annual report is AT Kearney's Global Retail Development Index (GDRI). The 15th annual 
technologies were integrated into a mock multi-store mall. In each of the store formats, lots of digital sensor solutions were feeding a growing computing cloud. 
"A business based on brand is, very simply, a business primed for success" - 
