Taking a closer look, it's clear that Costco, Lowe’s, Best Buy, and Tractor Supply have several striking similarities – qualities that are helping them win the war on retail theft. Holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 3.5% and 4.6% in 2023 for the November-January timeframe. U.S. retail sales to slow this holiday season, with the lowest growth rate since 2018. AI will influence $194 billion in global online holiday shopping spend.
IMPACT 2023 is 10 days away! We hope to see you there, but in the meantime, our hosts discuss choices and consequences of crime, forecasts for growth in the US and in Europe, as well as risks for global economies, and new risks emerging in cybersecurity and how to remain protected.
USA growth is projected to be just 1.6%, slightly better than the advanced economy average for 2023 according to the OECD. For 2024, the current projection is that USA economy will only grow 1%. NRF projects that this years’ holiday sales will grow 4% to 6%. Just over 80% of the holiday spend this year will be in physical stores. This holiday season, AI will influence $194 billion dollars in global online spend.
Incidents of theft have increased by 26% across 10 of the largest cities in the UK, with some cities seeing a rise of as much as 68%. USA low-end malls are worth at least 50% and in some cases more than 70% less than they were when mall valuations peaked in late 2016. For retailers and loss-prevention experts, the primary goal of these technologies isn’t necessarily to catch thieves in the act, but rather to make committing their crimes less appealing — turning them away before they ever reach the door.
With inflation factored in, only three sectors had positive growth: drug stores up 3.6%, restaurants up 4.4% and online non-store retail which was up 3.9%. Amazon most valuable global brand in 2023 according to Brand Finance. In the year 2075, the number 1 economy is expected to be China, followed by India, and USA drops to third place. Twitter rival Threads loses 75% traffic 15 days after launch.
USA families with students in kindergarten through 12th grade will spend 10% less on back-to-schoolitems. Spending for the season will reach $31.2 billion. Digitally mature companies are 23% more profitable than their less mature peers. The success rate of digital transformation is below 30%. Through mobile devices, by 2030, 64% of the global population will have access to the Internet. The 4th megatrend transitioning retail to be announced soon.
When does crime prevention turn into sales prevention? Self-checkout theft causing problems for Canada's retailers and shoppers who despise receipt checks. Threads Shoots Past One Million User Mark at Lightning Speed.
Costco cracks down on sharing membership cards. Police recover $7 million worth of Nike sneakers in Torrance shoe bust. Amazon Go stores closures continue. Wharton Consortium for Operational Excellence in Retail. Consumer confidence jumps in June. What will artificial intelligence do for us in the future.
This week, our hosts discuss growing issues in retail from lowered sales due to inflation, inventory distortion, shrink and violence on the rise, and the Amazon effect. Also this week, a new two-factor scam to be aware of as well as more current events!
Thank you NRF and David Johnston. Congrats to Ring of Excellence, Read Hayes, Joan Manson, Chad McIntosh, Chuck Miller, and Keith White. 75% of consumers extremely to very concerned if retailers raise prices to cover cost of theft. 36% have stopped shopping at certain stores due to safety concerns. 26% would shop elsewhere and if their local store puts items under lock and key.
Dollar Tree is considering locking up product due to theft. Ulta Beauty Sales Grow 12.3%, Although Theft is a Serious Concern. Worldwide, IHL is forecasting that the overall economic impact worldwide in retail from AI through 2029 will be $9.2 trillion dollars. The impact of AI in the coming seven years will be even a more significant advantage to larger retailers. Four retail segments will benefit the most from AI investments.
The three major challenges which from discussions with technology companies and retailers have been elevated as the highest USA priorities for loss prevention are active shooter, safety, and organized retail crime. Locking up merchandise to reduce shrink reduces revenue and increasingly drives consumers to alternate retail models. Five takeaways about the consumer from Walmart, other retailers after a big week of earnings. Apple in the Smartphone Market: Win Where it Matters.
81% reported an increase in retail shrink in 2022. Total apprehensions increased 45.6% and total recovery dollars from these apprehensions increased 70.5% in 2022. Shoplifter apprehensions and recovery dollars from those apprehensions increased significantly in 2022, up 50.9% and 90.5% respectively. Retail sales have fallen steeper in San Francisco than any other county in California. USA GDP growth slowed to a modest 1.1% annual rate from the average 3% in the previous two quarters.
Top five USA grocery chains are Walmart, Amazon, Costco, Kroger, and Target. Due to crime, Giant Foods is now limiting self-checkout kiosks to 20 items per customer and closing at 10 PM in some stores. Around 40% of all working hours could be impacted by AI large language models such as ChatGPT-4. With AI 50% of organizations believe it will result in job growth and 25% think it will create job losses.