Summarizing the first three ingredients driving the age of disruption from Part 1 of this post:
The Netherlands, France, Italy, Austria, Germany, all have key elections in the next 12 months that could potentially join the global populist disruptive wave manifested in Brexit and the surprise USA presidential ballot. Geopolitical turmoil carries risk for global brands and must be carefully navigated for continued success.
Today is indeed the slowest day of technology change for the rest of your life. Each new disruptive technology is finding its expanded global audience faster.
At a recent growth and innovation summit had the pleasure of once again speaking about the future of retail. To engage the audience in an innovation conversation decided to ask a series of historical technology questions.
Out of the sixteen researched questions, following are my favorite top five:
A recent Forbes article highlighted the following key takeaways from Tesla's latest quarterly results which beat expectations:
Major improvements are expected in batteries, including a pure lithium anode that might triple battery capacity in the future. The new Gigafactory batteries will have 10%-15% better capacity due to improved chemistry. The new factory will also reduce costs by at least 30%, allowing Tesla to deliver the much less expensive $35,000 Model 3 by 2017. CEO Alan Musk expects that within the next 10 years electric cars will reach cost parity with combustion engines.
Car production continues to increase and Tesla expects to deliver 35,000 cars during the current financial year. Tesla's goal is to reach a run rate of 100,000 cars per year by the end of 2015. Next spring, Tesla will release the Model X crossover SUV. Musk expects selling as many units of the new model as the current Model S. The CEO noted that they already had a lot of orders for the Model X, despite buyers having not seen the vehicle.
By 2018, the smart home market will reach $71 billion, more than double the $33 billion in 2013. Eighty percent of the current market is driven by entertainment. By 2020, other research points to a $1.7 billion market just for light controls and $1.4 billion for automated thermostats.
This month Time magazine dedicated their cover to a special report on "The Smarter Home". According to Time, the following companies will control your future smarter home:
Apple - With iOS 8 this fall Apple will release the Apple Homekit. Say "bedtime" to Siri and your Philips internet bulb will turn off.
Google - Followed up $3.2 billion purchase of Next (smart thermostats / smoke detectors) with acquisition of Dropcam (web enabled security cameras.
Several recent articles were a great reminder that with the accelerated pace of technology adoption, all business models can be quickly disrupted. Global mobile connectivity, virtual marketplaces, social media, and bypassing linear technology adoption approaches are a few of the trends reshaping the current global economy.
To access a broader market, innovative companies are breaking apart traditional value chains in legacy businesses and targeting higher margin niches to faster growth.
"Apple has seemingly served as an anomaly to the theory of disruptive innovation. After all, it grew from $7 billion in 2003 to $171 billion in 2013 by entering established (albeit still-emerging) markets with superior products — something the model suggests is a losing strategy."
Lessons from the Google Acquisition of Nest Technologies
In January, the Economist published a special report on the evolution of technology which they titled "A Cambrian Moment". The premise of the special report is that "cheap and ubiquitous building blocks for digital products and services have caused an explosion in (tech) start-ups." The magazine compares the current convergence of technology trends to the "Cambrian explosion" 540 million years ago when life forms began to multiply.
It is that time of the year to look forward at the top 10 key trends that will drive technology adoption in 2014:
According to Deloitte, brand value declined in 2013, for the third year in a row. To win in 2014, companies will need to go back to basics by selectively deploying technologies that protect and grow global brand value.
$19 Billion Market Opportunity by 2018
Have recently become fascinated by the early market examples of wearable technologies and their future possibilities for improved professional and personal productivity. Leading the pack:Google has an entire web site dedicated to Google Glass. In a highly graphical fashion, Google asks you to imagine that next bike ride, creating that perfect meal, instant visual language translations, picking the ideal golf club for the distance, and composing that perfect song.
Earlier this year Frost & Sullivan published a presentation titled "Bricks & Clicks: Next Generation Retailing" which highlighted the following retail industry trends for the year 2025:Nearly 20% of retail will happen online. In countries like the UK and USA online retail will be a quarter of the total. Everything from the product to the in-store experience will be customized and personalized as retailers increasingly offer "real time customization tools" to their customers. Multi-line retailers will reduce store size by 15%-20% and in larger formats create interactive customer experiences. Manufacturer retailers will open more "connected flagship stores" that are designed and created to support the brand image. The aim will be to make the brand stores a destination rather than a retailing zone. The gap between an order and a delivery will decrease as new services such as "same day shipping" become more affordable.
"We are witnessing the birth of a new breed of shopper. They float seamlessly across mobile, online, and real-world platforms as they travel up and down the purchase path and in doing so, exert tremendous influence over the ways that brands may interact with them and their peer groups. The ways in which they consume information, discover goods and make purchases has forced retailers to contemplate a new mix of transactional, behavioral, and social behaviors to remain competitive." (1) – Pier Fawkes, PSFK