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Tony D'Onofrio
Retail Shrink at a Crisis Point: 46% Say Shoplifting Easiest in Grocery Stores
In the latest USA National Retail Federation Security Survey published in September 2023, retail shrink increased from 1.6% of sales from 1.4% in the previous year. This equates to $112.1 billion in losses, up from $93.9 in the previous year. The top 3 retailer priorities in the new NRF survey versus the previous year were organized retail crime (78.1%), violence during a criminal act (72.3%), and homelessness concerns (72.3%).
What's changed since the 2023 NRF security survey was published? How does theft impact inventory distortion? What are the latest shoplifting trends? How do consumers respond to retail theft? Why is retail crime at a crisis point? How does USA compare to other countries with this problem? How do we solve the problem of retail shrink?
The $1.7 Trillion Dollar Global Retail Problem
Day One: The Feeling that Everyday Your Life is Just Getting Started
For all those that have been following my personal branding journey, the pattern that you should have recognized is that I am very passionate about three topics: retail, innovation, and leadership. When I am interviewed, often I tell the reporters that I feel I was born in a retail store. That feeling is based on the reality that from Junior High School to a Master's Degree, I worked in a retail store. Post those university degrees, my first role was with the technology company NCR in sales and marketing and the passion for innovation followed.
The success of my retail and technology careers has their origin in a more fundamental building block of my life in the triad of passions which is leadership. Following a difficult week of reflection, I want to take a step back from retail and innovation content and return to the topic of leadership.
McKinsey defines leadership as "a set of behaviors used to help people align their collective direction, to execute strategic plans, and to continually renew an organization." There is one word in this definition that the most important than all the others.
If your ambition is to be a leader, the one word you need to focus on in the McKinsey definition is 'renew'. To renew means you embrace change as a required baseline element for success.
In a 1913 journal article, Mahatma Gandhi wrote, "we but mirror the world. All the tendencies present in the outer world are to be found in the world of our body. If we could change ourselves, the tendencies in the world would also change. As a man changes his own nature, so does the attitude of the world change towards him. This is the divine mystery supreme. A wonderful thing it is and the source of our happiness. We need not wait to see what others do." The famous quote that probably stemmed from this journal entry that is attributed to Gandhi (which he never actually said) is "be the change you want to see in the world."
Personally, embracing renewal and change has led to a life of continuous improvement. Every day is indeed 'Day One' which includes both learning something new and exploring endless possibilities for personal and professional growth.
Day 1 Philosophy Explained
Phygital vs Digital: How Retail Will Thrive in the Next Ten Years
Digital retail transformation continues to be on my mind. This follows increased engagement with retailers on multiple continents and observing how they are embracing technology to create immersive experiences that drive more profitable operational efficiencies. From their lessons, the questions that I continue to contemplate include:
- Will the future of retail be phygital or omnichannel?
- How will current trends from next generation shoppers such as Gen Z change retail in the next 10 years?
- What emerging technologies must make progress to deliver a more profitable future of retail?
The Retail Boss nicely summarized the key differences between phygital and omnichannel retail strategies. "Phygital and omnichannel strategies both aim to enhance customer experiences but differ in their approaches. Phygital focuses on merging physical and digital worlds to create immersive, personalized experiences, often leveraging technologies like QR codes and augmented reality. On the other hand, omnichannel integrates various communication channels to provide a seamless and consistent brand experience across all touchpoints, such as physical stores, websites, and mobile apps. While phygital emphasizes the fusion of online and offline interactions, omnichannel prioritizes a unified customer journey across multiple platforms."
As Morningstar reported, "Generation Z, the first truly digital-native cohort, is rewriting the rules of engagement in the retail sector with their preferences and behaviors. Born into a world where the internet, smartphones, and social media are ubiquitous, zoomers' influence is shifting the retail paradigm from predominantly in-store interactions to a complex, integrated model that blends online and offline experiences seamlessly. Their comfort with technology and demand for instant, on-demand access to products and services are driving retailers to reimagine how they connect with consumers."
Technology will continue to disrupt retail business models. The industry's future requires increased digital strategies to turn consumers into brand ambassadors. Concurrently, the entire retail ecosystem and especially the physical store, must increase its digital stickiness through tech empowered store associates as equal brand ambassadors.
Future Consumers Technology Preferences
Digital Acceleration and the Top 5 Global Risks for 2024
With the not too distant second half of 2024 ahead for all of us, digital acceleration and the global risks we still face have been on my mind. The world's population has now reached 8.1 billion people, all on an accelerated march towards greater connectivity and digitization. Nearly 70% of the world's population now has a unique mobile phone subscription; just over 67% of us are using the internet; and maybe not surprisingly, nearly 63% of all individuals living on earth have unique social media identities.
On average, each one of us is spending 6 hours and 34 minutes per day on the internet. Note the changes in media consumption that are taking place.
Traditional media such as television and radio continue its spiral decline. Americans are now roughly twice as likely to prefer getting their news from digital devices than television. Three-in-ten USA adults regularly get their news on Facebook with YouTube coming in second at 26%. For GenZs, one-third regularly scroll TikTok for news, up 255% since 2020.
Are these social trends driving us towards a brighter, more cooperative future?
AI is Just Getting Started
Retail RFID: Table Stakes or a Game Changer Technology?
A favorite retail industry report which I hope Chain Store Age continues post their acquisition of RIS News was the annual Store Experience Study. The research highlighted the yearly technology priorities for retailers and its summary continues to be a mainstay as one of the charts in my 'Disruptive Future of Retail' keynote presentation.
According to the latest Store Experience Study, the top five technology priorities for retailers in 2024 are personalizing customer experiences, upgrading CRM / loyalty programs, empowering store associates, inventory visibility, and refreshing the point-of-sale infrastructure.
Will 'the Steal' Slow Self-Checkout and Frictionless Commerce?
“(Self-Checkout) It’s facilitating errors, and in some cases, the steal.” – Santiago Gallino, Associate Professor at the Wharton School
According to the latest NRF Security Survey, retail shrink represents $112.1 billion in losses, up nearly 20% from the previous year. Similar high shrink growth rates can be seen in other countries such as the UK where in the latest British Retail Consortium research, customer theft, doubled to just shy of £2 billion ($2.5 billion).
As I predicted many years ago, the problem of retail shrink is on a collision course with frictionless commerce consumer trends. This growing challenge actually bring new positive opportunities for to both retail and the loss prevention function.
The shrink challenging counter revolution taking place in the retail industry, led by younger generations, is frictionless commerce. “Over 50% of consumers will switch to a merchant with less friction in the shopping experience. And, 41% of all consumers will pay more for simple, fast and efficient shopping experiences.”
Specifically to self-checkout, the 2024 Digital Commerce Index found that 43% of consumers favor self-checkout when shopping in a grocery store. By age range, that preference is even more interesting with 55% of 18-29 years old favoring it, 30-44 at 51%, 45-60 at 40%, and those aged 60+ at only 26%.
The genie is out of the bottle in terms of increased frictionless commerce in all retail sectors. To understand its impact in the apparel industry, read one of my previous article titled “Let’s Get Phygital and Get the Future of Retail Party On.” This article explores deeper the challenges at retail shrink at self-checkout and the accelerated adoption trends of frictionless commerce.
Stealing at Your Local Self-Checkout
The World's Most Valuable and Powerful Brands for 2024
With a Mix of Brand Challenges in the Retail Industry
Earlier this year, Brand Finance published its latest ranking of the world's most valuable brands. Displacing last year's number 1 Amazon, Apple has roared back to the top spot with an astonishing 74% brand value increase. The company's 2024 brand value growth is approximately equal to the total value of Starbucks’s, Mercedes-Benz’s, Tesla’s, and Porsche’s brands combined.
"Apple has grown its brand value through strategic diversification and premiumization, moving away from heavy reliance on iPhone sales towards ventures into wearables and services such as Apple TV subscriptions." According to Brand Finance research, more that 50% of respondents recognized Apple as expensive, but worth the price, reinforcing the brand's ability to demand a price premium.
This article looks deeper into the success at Apple and explores the overall most valuable / strongest global brands. Finally, it summarizes the retail and apparel companies that emerged as the global brand value leaders in 2024.
The Next Apple Big Thing
Sponsored Content
It is a Small World
There will be an Answer - Let it Be
Continuing our journey to learning something new, our next stop is the Rock N Roll Hall of Fame in Cleveland Ohio. This city was named after Moses Cleaveland, a surveyor from Connecticut who founded Cleveland in 1796 while surveying the Western Reserve.
Cleveland would go on to have the first electrified public square in 1879 (thanks to Charles Brush and his arc lamp), and become home to General Electric in 1892. It is also the city with the first indoor mall opening in the country in 1890.
Standing over Public Square is the Terminal Tower which when it opened in 1928, was the second tallest building in the United States. And if you needed some super inspiration, remember that Cleveland is where Superman was created by Jerry Siegel and Joe Shuster in the early 1930s.
Today, Cleveland is the home of the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame. The city’s own radio disc jockey Alan Freed both coined the term "rock and roll" and heavily promoted the new genre—and that Cleveland was the location of Freed's Moondog Coronation Ball, often credited as the first major rock and roll concert.
This photo is from the Rock & Roll of Fame featuring one of my favorite songs from the Beatles. “And when the night is cloudy there is still a light that shines on me. Shine until tomorrow, let it be.”
Categories
Brilliant Research
Retailers' Blind Spot for Holiday 2024
When asked about their top holiday concerns for 2024, retailers revealed a continued reliance on historical data for critical decisions, rather than leveraging current consumer feedback. Key uncertainties revolve around promotional strategies, understanding item volume drivers, and the potential impact of inflation. The outcome of the holiday season remains unpredictable, even from these insider’s perspectives. - From First Insights Read more
Smart Infographic
The Future of Retail in Asia-Pacific: From Turbulence to Resurgence
Asia-Pacific is rebounding post-Covid to become a major engine again. – From Bain & Company
Insightful Videos
Why EV Leases Are So Cheap Right Now In The U.S. -CNBC
Automakers are offering steep discounts on electric vehicles, and especially on leases. In the first three months of 2024, less than a quarter of car buyers leased vehicles, but more than a third of EV buyers did. Read more
