Loss Prevention Research Council Weekly Series - Episode 83 - European Retail Sales and Global GDP Forecasts
With Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D'Onofrio, and Tom Meehan
Black Friday Insights from UK & Ireland
https://www.sensormatic.com/en_uk/resources/rp/2021/emea-black-friday-actuals-report
As I am in the UK, thought I would report this week how retail is performing here during Black Friday and what is expected for the holidays. From Sensormatic Solutions and their research here are some insights.
In the UK 79% had planned to start Christmas shopping before the beginning of December, with a third (34%) starting gift buying in November, up +7 percentage points compared to 2020.
Despite not reaching pre-pandemic levels, Christmas has started to come early for retailers, who welcomed the Black Friday boost to trade that traditionally marks the start of the festive season. Over the past 12 months, we have seen a slow but steady resurgence of in-store shopping, as consumer confidence has grown and demand for in-person shopping has risen.
Compared to 2020 November has continued to show strong YoY performances within the UK retail sector. A steady upwards trend across the month, as pre-Christmas shopping gained momentum led to a peak on Black Friday week of + 216.5%. Despite the 2020 YoY increase, comparisons to 2019 presented an inverse trend. Despite the benchmark figures early in the week providing an optimistic outlook, the trend quickly began to show an increasing deficit. A combination of poor weather, and less discounting than in previous years, may have contributed to Black Friday (-23.4%) and Saturday (-22.5%) remaining much further away from recovery than expected.
We continue to see a significant uplift in mall traffic numbers compared to 2020. Traffic numbers do continue to remain below pre covid trading conditions. While the decline in UK traffic trends remained consistent vs 2019, trading did decline further going into the weekend. The largest decrease occurred on Black Friday – 34.4% followed by Sunday -28.6%. The deteriorating weather caused by Storm Arwen is likely to have deterred some shoppers, who instead preferred to take advantage of online deals.
Euro Zone Retail Sales Up in October on non-food purchases
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/euro-zone-retail-sales-up-october-non-food-purchases-2021-12-03/
From Reuters here is a summary of how retail sales are doing in Europe through October from data released last week.
Retail sales, a proxy for consumer demand, in the 19 countries sharing the euro, gained 0.2% month-on-month in October and were up 1.4% from a year earlier.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected increases of respectively 0.2% and 1.2%.
With energy prices having soared and coronavirus infections rising, resulting in renewed restrictions, consumers are expected to become more cautious in the coming months.
Consumer sentiment declined for the second consecutive month in November, a survey by the European Commission showed on Monday, with households less upbeat about their intentions to make major purchases and about the general economic situation.
Global Economic Forecast Q4 / 2021
https://go.euromonitor.com/white-paper-economies-and-consumers-211207-economic-forecasts-2021Q4.html
Euromonitor just issued its latest global gross domestic product or GDP forecast for the world.
Their latest data indicates that After contracting by 3.1% in 2020, global real GDP is forecast to increase by 5.7% in 2021 and 4.6% in 2022. The global economic outlook at the end of 2021 remains constrained by an ongoing mismatch between consumer demand and the availability of certain services, due to rises in COVID-19 infections and restrictions, in addition to a mismatch between the speed of recovery in demand and the rebound in global supply.
US economic output has recovered to its Q4 2019 level, though it remains below the pre-pandemic forecast level at the end of 2021. Real GDP growth forecast has been significantly downgraded since mid-2021, to 5.5% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022, due to the emergence of the Delta variant in a population where 40% are still not fully vaccinated.
Another factor limiting the speed of recovery in the second half of 2021 are shortage supplies and declines in consumer confidence, both leading to increased commodity prices and a higher general cost of living. However, the newly enacted fiscal infrastructure package stimulus is expected to significantly contribute and boost the country’s economic recovery in 2022.
Eurozone real GDP is expected to increase by 4.9% in 2021 and by 4.3% growth in 2022. The forecast upgrade mainly reflects a better than expected Eurozone recovery during Q2-Q3, especially for consumer spending. Real GDP increased by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2021, largely driven by a relaxation in social distancing restrictions and an increase in private sector confidence, coupled with higher rates of savings cumulated during the earlier stages of the pandemic.
However, economic recovery in Q4 is expected to slow down, as a result of supply side constraints and rising energy prices and the emergence of a fourth wave of COVID-19. Key supply bottlenecks include shortages of raw materials and intermediary inputs, such as semiconductors and labour shortages across several sectors.
A New Variant Reaches the US! LPRC Kickoff is January 19th in NYC Bloomingdales Flagship Store! In this week’s episode, our co-hosts discuss these topics and more, including the newest cyber trends, Holiday Shopping Trends analyzed abroad, GDP Projections for the US and Europe are Explained, and Bitcoin still in the news. Listen in to stay updated on hot topics in the industry and more!
